How war and aid will change in Ukraine under Trump

On Monday, February 20, Donald Trump was inaugurated in the rotunda of the US Capitol. He took the oath of office as the 47th President of the United States, officially taking office. Trump returned to the White House after his first term, an unsuccessful re-election bid, and a four-year break. Only one other American president, Grover Cleveland, managed to do it. Donald Trump and his entourage have repeatedly criticized the Ukrainian government, accusing it of corruption, and promised to cut military aid and end the war as soon as possible.

Novyny.LIVE is going to tell what Ukrainians should expect from Trump's presidency, whether he will stop the war, and what kind of assistance the U.S. will provide.

Will Donald Trump end the War in Ukraine?

Donald Trump, who has become a full-fledged head of the American state, repeatedly stated during the election campaign that he would stop the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. He also accused Joe Biden's administration of not trying to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"When I say  so, I am going to reach a settlement very quickly. I will have a settlement within 24 hours. Standing before you today, I am the only candidate who can make that promise. I will stop World War III from happening," Trump emphasized during his speech.

As a result of such statements by Donald Trump, many fear that the change of U.S. president could lead to increased pressure on Ukraine to sign a peace agreement on unfavourable terms. These fears are exacerbated by the Republicans' blocking of military aid to Ukraine.

In addition, J.D. Vance, a veteran, author of popular books, entrepreneur and senator from Ohio, was elected vice president of the United States. During Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Vance has repeatedly expressed scepticism about American support for Kyiv. He opposed military and financial aid to Ukraine, called Ukraine "one of the most corrupt countries in the world", proposed "peace" initiatives and insisted on negotiations with Vladimir Putin.

"We've already sent probably over 130 billion dollars to the most corrupt country on the planet, and we have no idea how those resources have been spent," J.D. Vance said.

In 2023, Vance, along with 18 Republican colleagues, sent a letter to President Biden calling for an end to "unlimited aid" to Ukraine.

"We strongly oppose all future aid packages unless they are linked to a clear diplomatic strategy to bring this war to a swift end," the letter said.

According to Vance, achieving peace in Ukraine may include the creation of a "demilitarized zone" in the Russian-occupied territories, while Ukraine should refuse to join NATO.

At the same time, a few days before the inauguration, Trump's advisers acknowledged that it would take months or even longer to resolve the war in Ukraine.

Two Trump associates who discussed the war in Ukraine with the president-elect told Reuters that they were looking at a timeframe of several months for peace. These estimates coincide with remarks made by Trump's new special envoy for Russia and Ukraine, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, who said he would like to find a "solution" to the war within 100 days.

This is far beyond the original timeline of Trump, who repeatedly stated that he could conclude a deal between Ukraine and Russia on his first day in office, if not sooner.

After the election, Trump backed away from his rhetoric even further and began to say that he would end the war without offering any time frame. He also said that ending the war in Ukraine would be more difficult than achieving a ceasefire in Gaza.

"I think it's actually going to be more complicated between Russia and Ukraine. I see it being more complicated," Trump said during a press conference in December.

However, on the eve of his inauguration, Trump again promised to end the war in Ukraine and prevent World War III.

"I will end the war in Ukraine, stop the chaos in the Middle East, and prevent World War III — and you have no idea how close we are to that," the Republican said.

In addition, CNN has learned that the U.S. president has instructed his aides to organize a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin within days of his inauguration. According to the publication's sources, one of the goals of the conversation will be to discuss a personal meeting in the coming months to try to end the war in Ukraine.

What experts say about the end of the war in Ukraine

According to Oleksandr Kraev, an expert at the Ukrainian Prism Foreign Policy Council, Trump is expected to have a clear strategy, since the US president has no such documents, neither on Ukraine, nor on China or other areas.

"Trump wants peace talks to begin, preceded by a ceasefire. But Trump's actions so far are purely tactical: ceasefire and start negotiations, ...and then let the chips fall where they may," said the expert.

However, Kraev emphasized that since his election campaign, Donald Trump has become more realistic in his assessments of the war in Ukraine and added that it is impossible for Donald Trump to simply call Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy to stop the war, as this is a priori unrealistic.

According to him, the only way to end the war in 24 hours is to surrender. At the same time, due to the peculiarities of his character, Trump is unlikely to give in to Putin, as it is extremely important for him not to look weak.

Kraev also does not believe that Trump will cancel the authorization to strike Russian territory with American weapons. The expert believes that such a risk is minimal, as Trump's entourage, including his advisors, has already spoken out against the reversal of this decision.

Commenting on expectations after Trump's inauguration, Vladyslav Faraponov, founder of the Institute of American Studies, emphasized that the Republican administration tends to be more practical and pragmatic in its decisions and rhetoric.

"In general, in particular, this administration will indeed be dominated by the America first approach, but in my opinion, Ukraine should not demonstrate that we are somehow afraid of this concept, because the America first concept does not mean that Ukraine will be surrendered. General Kellogg is hinting at negotiations, but he understands why Ukraine cannot enter into unfavorable negotiations for itself," Faraponov noted.

Will Donald Trump stop aid to Ukraine?

What kind of support Ukraine will receive under Trump's presidency depends first and foremost on the strategy he chooses for the war in Ukraine. However, since winning the election, Trump has said little about what his administration's policy on the Russian-Ukrainian war will be.

It should be noted that Trump himself and his entourage have often criticized the Ukrainian authorities, seeing corruption in their actions. In particular, Elon Musk, an entrepreneur and engineer, founder of SpaceX and Tesla, and now head of the newly created Department of Government Effectiveness in the Trump administration, called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy the "all-time champion" of robbery, referring to the assistance provided to Ukraine in the war with Russia.

Trump himself does not rule out the possibility of reducing aid to Ukraine. In an interview with NBC News, answering a journalist's question about whether Ukraine should prepare for a reduction in U.S. aid when he returns to the White House, Trump said: "Maybe. Of course".

According to the Financial Times, Donald Trump plans to continue to support Ukraine after taking office as US president. However, according to sources from his team, he intends to demand that NATO members increase defense spending to 5% of GDP.

At the same time, Trump is seeking to shift the bulk of military aid to Ukraine to European countries, reducing U.S. financial support. He is already putting pressure on European allies to help Ukraine more actively, while signaling that U.S. security assistance will be reduced.

Europe expects that support for Ukraine from the United States and the European Union will continue at the same level. German Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed confidence that the United States will continue to provide assistance to Ukraine even after the inauguration of the 47th US President Donald Trump.

Meanwhile, an analytical report by the American Enterprise Institute indicates that a possible Russian victory in the war against Ukraine would require a significant increase in Pentagon military spending — by more than $800 billion by 2029. Experts emphasize that this will be much more expensive than continuing to supply weapons to Ukraine.

Reduced financial support could affect Ukraine's economic stability, especially if the war continues. Ukraine's state budget for 2025 envisages external borrowing of UAH 1.658 trillion ($36.9 billion at the exchange rate of UAH 45/USD).

Of this, the International Monetary Fund is expected to provide $2.7 billion, the European Union $11.9 billion and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (including US support) $3.1 billion. In addition, Ukraine plans to raise $19.1 billion from other creditors.

A reduction in financial support from the United States or other international partners could certainly affect the dollar in Ukraine. However, experts do not expect this to happen in the short term. At the same time, most experts predict a gradual weakening of the hryvnia in 2025. If there are delays or refusals to provide financial assistance, this could lead to more serious changes in the currency market.

"I personally do not expect any problems in the currency market due to Trump's inauguration. First of all, because inflation in the first quarter of 2025 will be above 10% and the NBU is likely to restrain it by not devaluing it," said economic expert Danylo Monin.